ResearchMay 22 2023
Unveiling the Power of TikTok Data: Predicting the Eurovision 2023 Winner
Explore the fusion of Eurovision and data-driven insights in this blog where we unveil how harnessing TikTok data helped us predict Eurovision winner
Madhuparna Chaudhuri
Growth Marketer @Exolyt

The Eurovision Song Contest is an annual celebration of music, talent, and cultural diversity, captivating millions of viewers worldwide. As ardent fans of Eurovision and the power of data analytics, we at Exolyt embarked on an exciting journey to uncover the potential of TikTok data in predicting the Eurovision Song Contest 2023 winner.

While the ultimate outcome of the Eurovision Song Contest 2023 remained uncertain until the climactic finale, the journey we embarked upon had a captivating blend of data-driven discoveries and the sheer excitement that Eurovision brings to fans worldwide. 

In this blog, we will share our experience, methodology, and insights we discovered along the way.

Harnessing the Power of TikTok Analytics:

To embark on this data-driven adventure, we delved into the vast world of TikTok analytics. TikTok, with its massive user base and global reach, offers a wealth of insights into music trends, fan engagement, and viral sensations. 

By leveraging this data, we aimed to uncover patterns that could shed light on the potential Eurovision 2023 Song Contest winner.

For the purpose of this analysis:

We started by scanning our extensive data on user engagement levels associated with each participating artist across all countries. This data provided valuable clues about the level of excitement surrounding each contestant, which helped us filter out the top ten that looked the most promising

For these top ten contestants, we dove deeper to determine who could be the next potential winner. Since public voting is a big contributor to the winning chances of the contestants, we need to determine how large the potential fanbase can vote for each contestant. 

The graph below shows the TikTok followers of the artists before qualifying for Eurovision 2023.

We can see that most artists already have some followers that are likely to be their domestic fans. However, since countries cannot vote for their own contestants, these numbers alone are unlikely to predict the potential winner. 

Therefore we need to understand how much each artist's following has grown after they qualified for Eurovision. The growth in the number of followers after qualifying for Eurovision can indicate an influx of international followers that can impact the final voting. 

Additionally, we considered the general reception and support for each participating artist by the number of growth in their followers since the beginning of this year.

The graph above illustrates how the audience of each artist has grown through 2023. 

If looked closely, we can see that some contestants see a sharp rise in the number of followers while others increase their audience only marginally. Finland, Sweden, Norway, and Israel decisively lead the audience growth charts, while Spain, Ukraine, and France trail behind. 

Furthermore, we can observe different growth patterns for different contestants.  Some have been steadily growing their audience, while others see almost exponential growth closer to the final of the Eurovision. The rapidly rising ones are likely candidates for getting the top spots since this kind of exponential growth suggests virality. 

Naturally, audience growth alone would be insufficient for a precise winner selection. In order to translate audience growth into voting power, the audience needs to be highly engaged. 

Therefore, next, we look into engagement rates for each artist and try to estimate how active their audience is. 

The chart below illustrates the like-to-follower ratio of each artist. 

As we can see despite having the biggest audience the engagement rates for Israel are among the lowest while Belgium and Ukraine, despite smaller audiences, have the highest engagement rates. 

We can perform a similar analysis for comments and shares each artist received and combine all of our findings into a single model that relates audience growth to overall engagement rates. The result would be the Exolyt magic formula for predicting the results of Eurovision 2023.

The Prediction:

Armed with TikTok data and a comprehensive analysis, we finally arrived at our prediction for the Eurovision Song Contest 2023 winner. 

While the final outcome is not a mystery anymore, the insights derived from TikTok data have indeed provided intriguing indicators to help us predict the final results. Which we may humbly add was close to perfect.

Check out our latest Trending Tuesday video on this topic to discover more about the traction Eurovision Song Content 2023 received and how Exolyt predicted the winners based on TikTok insights. 

The fusion of data analytics and the Eurovision Song Contest brought a new dimension to the excitement surrounding this iconic event making it even more thrilling and unpredictable.

By harnessing the power of TikTok data, we embraced the fusion of technology and creativity as we explored the potential correlations between online buzz, fan engagement and following, and the Eurovision winner. 

Although you may take this prediction with a grain of salt, this fascinating journey showcases the evolving role of data analytics in predicting the future of music and entertainment. 

So, are you excited to explore such hidden trends and patterns powered by TikTok data and insights?

Data analysis & methodology documented by Tigran Khatchatryan, Data Scientist @Exolyt
Madhuparna Chaudhuri
Growth Marketer @Exolyt
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